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WORLDWIDE: Analysts at Make Consulting have upgraded their ten-year outlook, now forecasting average capacity additions of more than 67GW between 2018 and 2027.<\/p>\n
Multi-gigawatt upgrades in several countries drove the increase from the market analysis firm\u2019s forecast one quarter ago, when it predicted 65GW per year over the same period \u2014 an increase of 3%.<\/p>\n
The global up-tick comes despite incentive mechanisms expiring in several markets, “policy-driven downgrades” in Iran, “increasingly dubious export opportunities” in Canada, and downward adjustments in Germany, France, Belgium, and Turkey.<\/p>\n
Americas<\/strong><\/p>\n Three north-eastern US states tendering a total of 1.4GW of offtake capacity in Q2 solidified and boosted growth expectations for the next decade, Make stated in its Q2\/2018 Global Wind Power Market Outlook Update.<\/p>\n However, as north-eastern US states becomes more focussed on offshore wind, “increasingly dubious export opportunities” in eastern Canada puts pressure on project execution in Ontario and Alberta.<\/p>\n Overall, Make raised its forecast for North America by 10% compared to the previous quarter.<\/p>\n The analysts downgraded their outlook for Mexico by 24% compared to Q1 due to modest load-growth expectations and an anticipated change in presidential leadership.<\/p>\n This overwhelms more modest, project-level adjustments elsewhere in Latin America, downgrading the sub-region by 7% over the next ten years.<\/p>\n Europe<\/strong><\/p>\n The outlook improved in northern Europe due to a 500MW-plus upgrade in the UK \u2014 supported by more renewable obligation-qualified projects than were identified in Q1 \u2014 and an upgrade of nearly 500MW in Norway, where two projects reached final investment decision (FID).<\/p>\n Greater repowering activity and the conclusion of a second auction drove up Make\u2019s expectations for the Netherlands by nearly 600MW quarter-on-quarter,<\/p>\n By contrast, Germany\u2019s most recent onshore wind auction was\u00a0undersubscribed<\/a>\u00a0and interest in repowering waned, while downward adjustments were also made in France and Belgium.<\/p>\n Greece announced its\u00a0first wind auctions<\/a>\u00a0in May, which led to Make upgrading its outlook for the country by 31% \u2014 the only meaningful change in southern Europe from Q1.<\/p>\n However, economic weakness in Turkey resulted in a downgrade there in Q2.<\/p>\n Elsewhere, Kazakhstan\u00a0launched an auction programm<\/a>e that eventually awarded 620MW of wind power capacity and early development work was carried out in Armenia and Romania, inspiring Make\u2019s confidence in market growth in the region over the next decade.<\/p>\n Middle East and Africa<\/strong><\/p>\n The US\u2019 withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal prompted Make to lower its expectations for the country by 47%, while the analysts lauded “positive development” in Saudi Arabia and Lebanon, where the government is\u00a0planning to tender 300MW<\/a>.<\/p>\n Wind PPAs were signed in Egypt and\u00a0South Africa<\/a>, spurring growth in markets that had previously faltered. In each country, more than 1GW was added to the national outlook, while the forecast for Africa rose 9% quarter-on-quarter.<\/p>\n Asia-Pacific<\/strong><\/p>\n Despite the announcement of an auction regime in key wind power bases in China, the world leader\u2019s outlook remains largely unchanged, as recent policy annoncements had been assumed in the previous quarter\u2019s analysis.<\/p>\n